GA Senate Run-off poll shows 50/50 race with warning signs for Warnock campaign

FrederickPolls, COMPETE Digital, AMM Political have released a Georgia Senate Run-off poll showing a Dead Heat between Senator Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. Our poll paints a less rosy picture for the incumbent Senator than the current national narrative of the campaign, which seems to be favoring Warnock.

Download the summary, toplines, and crosstabs here:

GA Run-off Poll Results Summary
GA Run-off Toplines
GA Run-off Crosstabs A
GA Run-off Crosstabs B
GA Run-off Crosstabs C

Below is a summary of our key findings:

1. Ballot Vote among n=939 likely December 6th runoff voters is a 50-50 Dead Heat with warning signs for the Warnock campaign.

U.S. Senate runoff ballot: 50% Raphael Warnock, 50% Herschel Walker.
The so-called “hold your nose” voters do not appear likely to defect from Walker.
- Hershel Walker still holds onto 94% of the November Brian Kemp voters
- A small, but potentially meaningful 11% of the Kemp-Warnock voters say they will switch and vote Walker in the runoff; and
- Over 80% of those who either like both candidates or dislike both (12% of all voters) are voting Walker in the runoff.
The Chase Oliver-Libertarian voters could impact runoff dynamics by nearly erasing Warnock’s slim 36,465- vote November lead if they turn out in equal numbers (81K) and swing to Walker by 2:1 as they do in this poll.

2. Other Runoff Dynamics — turnout composition of the December 6th electorate will determine who wins.

Ballot choice is locked in. 97% say they are “definitely voting for my choice”; there are virtually no persuadable voters. Among the 3% who “might switch,” the vote is an even 51% Warnock, 49% Walker.
Independents favor Warnock by 52% to 48% which is just enough to offset the +6-point Republican advantage in Party Identification with Republicans 95% for Walker and Democrats 99% for Warnock.
Walker’s advantage with voters who like/dislike both candidates is offset by Warnock’s 8-point advantage (48% to 40%) in voters who “like Warnock better” and vote 99% Warnock.
An increase in black vote — 90% for Warnock — or an increase in non-Metro Atlanta white vote — 67% for Walker — can swing this dead heat race one way or the other.
Warnock also benefits from an increase in turnout among Women under 55 — from whom he receives 64% of the vote — while Walker benefits from a higher percentage of whites 65+ — 69% vote for him.

3. Methodology.

Sample Size: n=939 likely December 6th voters.
Margin of Error: 3.1%.
Interview Dates: November 23, 25-26, 2022.
Interview Method: Online via cell text invites.
Demographics:
- November Governor vote — Kemp 50%, Abrams 45%, Hazel 2%, did not vote but will in run-off 3%.
- November Senate vote — Warnock 48%, Walker 47%, Oliver 2%, did not vote but will in run-off 3%.
- Party ID — Republican 40%, Democrat 34%, Independent / other 26%.
- Gender: Women 52%, Men 46%, Other 2%.
- Race / Ethnicity: Black or African American 20%, White 72%, Other 8%.

For inquiries, contact: Keith Frederick, Principal Frederick Polls Keith@FrederickPolls.com 703-801-9506

GA Senate Run-off poll shows 50/50 race with warning signs for Warnock campaign

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